Usually when I pitch an idea to Mia and she says, “That’s so American” I know to ditch it. But not this time. She followed her chuckled British disdain with genuine enthusiasm stating, “And it’s coming here! Have you seen those preciously packaged white strawberries?!?” Have I ever! Seen them, tried them, loved them, and proceeded to hide them from my children!
But this story is about more than just rare, luxury produce (which is definitely becoming a thing as indicated by Dan Frommer in his Row 7 deep dive). It’s about where the produce section of the average American grocery store (and apparently British ones too) might be headed… and the opportunity this presents for us brand and business people.
To paint that picture, let me start by telling you about the cheese section in the grocery store of my youth circa 1990. Oh wait… come to think of it… there was no official “Cheese” section. There was the “Deli” where one could purchase slices from a massive block of Land O’Lakes, and there was “Dairy” where one could find bags of shredded Kraft, blocks of solid Kraft, and “Singles” of processed Kraft. It was basically a commodity category dominated by a handful of brands that stood for form and convenience more than anything else. Case in point: this 1992 ad for Babybel, a brand that was then considered premium and special because its cheese came in individually wrapped wax wheels that made it easy to eat on the go.
Those born after the mid-2000s probably can’t even imagine this dismal state of affairs. Today, we’re so accustomed to lavish cheese sections with dozens of varieties and colorful labels, each touting a unique flavor profile, color, texture, crumble, agedness, freshness, usage occasion, even food and beverage pairing. What happened? Branding happened.
As the culinary landscape evolved, tastes became more global and complex, and small-batch production entered the scene, brands proliferated— each one working hard to carve out their distinct value proposition in the marketplace. Now, Food & Wine can write articles about the fifty best domestic cheese brands and imagine a future in which the cheese sections of our “most pedestrian grocery stores” rival those of gourmet European markets. Like it or not, branding is a powerful agent of variety, category growth, and consumer power (because it deepens knowledge and creates choice).
Strangely (or maybe not), the produce category has been much slower to evolve. We’ve definitely seen massive growth in the number of fruit and vegetable types— from cotton candy grapes to those precious white strawberries— but the presence of brand in the produce section is still quite spotty and understated. Yes— there are a growing number of exceptions (which we’ll get to), but by and large most fruit and vegetable stacks in the grocery store today are still dominated by a single brand at any given time. Do you even know the brand of apples, grapes, or broccoli you last bought? Sure, you might seek out Honeycrisp or Fuji, organic or conventional, but does the brand name on the sticker mean anything to you? Was there even a sticker?
Let’s run a little experiment.
Here’s the online listing for organic broccoli from my local grocery store. There’s no mention of brand on the right-hand side, no description, and no enticing romance copy. The picture is— well— broccoli with a small blue tag around the stems that has the following information on it in descending order of priority: PLU number, barcode, French and English spellings of “Organic Broccoli,” and— oh what’s that?!?— a brand! “Josie’s Organics” (if you squint, you can see it).
Let me know your response to the question below.
Now check out this listing for grape tomatoes. What do you notice? What’s different?
Please answer the question below.
I obviously don’t know your answers (I’ll be sure to report back when in and tallied), but I know mine. It’s a “Probably not” or “No way!” for the broccoli and a “Heck yeah!” for the tomatoes. Those little Sunset Sugar Bombs are the bomb, and I specifically seek them out for guaranteed flavor, freshness, and quality. If some off-brand variety showed up at my door, I’d feel cheated. I might even take them back! The broccoli, on the other hand, is just broccoli to me. I think the grocer might look at me sideways if I tried to return it for not being the brand featured in the picture.
But things seem to be changing… and at an accelerated pace. It used to be that Cuties and my local favorite Gotham Greens were the only two brands I sought out in the produce section. Now it’s at least a handful of brands (those Sunset Sugar Bombs included). How far might this go? And what does it mean for those competing and shopping in the space?
At a minimum, I think we can expect to see more multi-tiered pricing structures in specific fruit and vegetable segments. At my local Mariano’s and Whole Foods this already exists in organic grape tomatoes, conventional and organic strawberries, herbs, and pre-washed packaged lettuce. I spotted these little beauties (Nature Fresh Farms Little Obsessions) the other day priced at $8.99/12oz container.
They were alongside Driscoll’s organic strawberries for $7.99/16oz container and Giant organic for $6.99/16oz container. Conventional strawberries had an entirely separate brand/price tier structure. It was apparent that the fresh strawberries category has graduated beyond a simple organic/conventional 2-tier price structure to something far more complex, distinguished by brand and speaking a romance language that was both enticing and educational (“Obsessions,” “Sweetest Batch,” “Only the Finest,” and “Greenhouse Clean”).
Trends like this have a way of spreading laterally, often driven by consumer demand. Why? Well, when an array of choices is available in one segment (e.g., strawberries), and consumers are educated at shelf about the possibilities of different breeding and growing techniques, they’re more likely to turn to the next segment over and expect the same thing. Thus, growers and suppliers of that segment (e.g., citrus) innovate and differentiate as well. It could take years— even decades (as it did in cheese)— but eventually brand variety and— thus— different brand features, price points, and expectations become the norm. Branding is contagious in this way.
The produce category seems to be reaching a tipping point in which there are just enough players like Little Obsessions and Sugar Bombs scattered throughout that a literal brand boom could be right around the corner. And then what? Most grocery stores today do not have large enough footprints to house the proliferation of produce brands conceivable. With every new brand launch in the produce section of my local grocery store, I feel the walls closing in. The squash and melon sections practically spew out the front entrance, and the rest of the area is packed so tight shoppers have grown accustomed to ditching their carts and bobbing and weaving through the stacks like hungry mice in a maze. Without a doubt, there will be some eventual encroachment on center store (look out packaged goods!) and some natural weeding-out of lower quality, lower turn items. I think it’s possible we might also see a more pronounced return of seasonality. No more mealy apples in February or rock-hard peaches in November!
To me, one of the most exciting things about this potential transformation is that quality and consistency will improve. As soon as brands emerge with promises of a particular flavor profile or freshness, supply chains will be forced to evolve, perhaps rebalancing power between growers, distributors and retailers. One rebalancing that’s sure to occur is a shift in consumer loyalty to brand over retailer. Today, my trust is primarily with certain retailers to deliver the best, most flavorful produce, but as more and more brands emerge that stand for these virtues I’m likely to be less discerning about where I shop (so long as they carry my faves). I think it’s likely to drive a spike in online grocery shopping as well. Sticklers like me who are holding out because we believe the only way to guarantee quality produce is to see and touch it for ourselves just might finally find a link in the chain they can trust— the brands!
This imagined future may seem crazy to some and obvious to others. If I’d asked my 1990s self if I thought I might one day have a preferred brand of stilton and cheddar, I might have chuckled, “That’s so British!”, but… well, here we are.